The threat of autocracy is not sufficiently recognized. In the next two or three years, American democracy will either fall — or the people will once again have eked out a victory over the forces and temptations of autocracy. We see and hear Trump and his clan and his Republican supporters, but the significance does not penetrate our consciousness. We are busy with other things, it is just too awful to contemplate, American democracy has always survived (Civil War, great depression, World Wars, Vietnam, even Trump — so far). But this is different. Like Scarlett O’Hara in Gone With the Wind, we’ll think about that tomorrow.
Besides, the patriotic thing to do is have faith in Americans. Be optimistic. Something [good] will happen, some new leader will emerge, it will be all right, the center will hold, the Constitution will survive. The Democrats think Trump will surely be defeated in the election, but that’s beyond optimism: it’s wishful thinking. They are taking a huge risk with our Nation. No-one knows what’s going to happen.
The forces of autocracy are active. They are attacking our Law and Order institutions, causing people to lose faith. The FBI, the Justice Department, even the military. These bulwarks of democracy are being criticized and weakened. Wild conspiracy stories are being circulated, and believed. Ordinary people threaten civil war if Trump is found guilty of anything. There is a new tolerance for political violence.
Though no-one knows what is going to happen, a groundwork is being prepared. We see all this and deplore it, but we’ll think about it tomorrow.
What is going to happen? We know some things. One or more Trump trials will likely happen before the 2024 election. Trump will keep stirring the pot with his “free speech” and attacks on the people and legal system that is trying to make him accountable for his deeds like an ordinary person would be made accountable. The atmosphere of the trial (trials?) will be messy, dirty, and chaotic. He may precipitate a crisis with his rhetoric. But a trial or two will most probably get done.
It is, however, unlikely that Trump will be convicted. The most likely outcome is that there will be at least one juror in each trial who is a loyal Trumper. All it takes is one. One out of twelve. If he is convicted, he won’t be sentenced to jail, not in a Presidential election campaign.
Imagine Trump’s gloating and arrogance when he is acquitted! And then he will get revenge on everyone who had anything to do with his legal troubles.
I have explained in a previous Jack’s Journal article why Trump is likely to win the 2024 election. After being acquitted in a trial, Trump will be even more likely to win. (And I didn’t even consider the Biden’s Hunter problem or the possibility of a No Labels party run that would take votes away from him.)
Though some things are more or less predictable, no-one knows what is going to happen. It is likely that there will be at least one unexpected surprise in the months before the election. What is certain is that the forces of autocracy will continue active so that, if there is an opportunity, they can take the power.
Who is behind the preparation for autocracy? Trump, maybe, but it’s more likely that he is just a willing stand-in dictator. If we ask who gains from the demise of American democracy, the answer is Russia and China and a few other dictatorial regimes around the world. So maybe they are responsible? Maybe Fox News, who promotes many untrue stories that populate the Internet? Maybe those Republican Congresspeople and Senators who give their support. Maybe domestic oligarchs, like the ones who lavish gifts on Clarence Thomas? Maybe . . .who? Maybe no-one, maybe it’s just a spontaneous movement toward autocracy?
I don’t believe that. I’m more paranoid. I think there is some group or groups behind the push for American autocracy.
What can we do about it? Not much. The American Bar Association is trying something, though. They have formed a task force to “Educate the Public and Improve Trust in Our Election System”. The 31 member ABA Task Force for American Democracy will look at ways to depoliticize how elections are administered, educate the public on democracy, and try to foster election innovations that address the causes of politicization. The Chair is Jeh Johnson, former Secretary of Homeland Security. We’ll see what they do.
We can get prepared and Be Prepared. — like the Boy Scouts.
During World War II, when the Germans were bombing London and Swansea every night, the Brits put up thousands of posters saying Keep Calm. — Carry On. And that’s what they did until the Greatest Generation of the Greatest Democracy arrived to help them win the war. Will our generation rise up and save us from autocracy?
And we can write letters to our Representatives. This is what one did back in the sixties. I asked chatDPT to write a letter for me but I didn’t like their letter. Too long, for one thing. Too general, for another. Here is the letter I wrote:
Dear Congressman/Senator:
I am very concerned about the attacks by politicians and even law-makers on the institutions that support our American democracy, e.g., attacks on the FBI, the courts and legal system, and even the military. Attacking these kinds of institutions is exactly what autocrats do before they take over.
I am writing you as my Representative/Senator to ask to counter these attacks and show visible and verbal support to our institutions of democracy. This Nation needs many more voices standing up for democracy. In particular, we need your voice!
You can write your own letter. Just Sayin’.
John R. Dixon 