Before the recent mid-term election, there was talk by Democrats, including Barack Obama and President Biden, about the possibility of the U.S. losing its democracy. Since the election went well enough, it appears we haven’t lost it yet. (By the way, even though Democrats claim victory, they lost the election. They didn’t lose as bad as they expected; they won a few important battles like Michigan and Pennsylvania, and they held the Senate, but they lost the war when they lost the House. If you don’t think so, just watch the House Republicans this Spring and the next two years.)
Still, the question about the future of our democracy remains unanswered.
We are for sure in dire straits in America, but we’ve been in dire straits before without losing our precious but delicate democratic form of government. Examples of dire straits: Vietnam; December 7, 1941; 9/11/2001; the Great Depression; the McCarthy hearings; the Civil War. We didn’t lose our democracy in those crises. Is something different now?
Yes, a lot of things are different now. Harvard Professors of Government Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt have addressed this question in a book entitled How Democracies Die. And there’s a book by journalist Anne Applebaum entitled Twilight of Democracy. Also, How Democracies End by political philosopher David Runciman. My analysis of the question is based partly on a reading of these books, and partly on my own ninety-two years of living in a democracy.
• One of the things that’s different now is that there is a major political party whose leaders and followers are willing to support and/or ignore (or even make fun of) political violence. They refuse even to recognize the significance of January 6, 2021. Tolerance for violence is a hallmark of autocrats and autocratic governments. (And note how Margaret Taylor Greene, now a member of important Congressional committees, threatened the use of guns in the next insurrection. Make no mistake: she was making a very real threat.) The tolerance for violence of Republican political leaders is a real danger sign for our democracy.
• Another thing that is different now, and a clear danger signal, is that there is a popular autocrat waiting in the wings to take over when the opportunity, such as the coming debt crisis, presents itself. And Trump is doing everything he can to make that opportunity happen. He’s running for President. He demands loyalty, and he rewards loyalty like all autocrats do. He ridicules and insults people who express opposition. He’s arrogant; note that he supports politicians who are loyal even though they are “poor quality candidates.” Autocracy is appealing to those who are willing, above all else, to be loyal to the chief autocrat. Through such loyalty, mediocre people can get ahead. Loyalty replaces merit as a way to succeed. Thus, the widespread deterioration of meritocracy in our society is another bad sign.
• In How Democracies Die, Professors Levitsky and Ziblatt make it a major point that the political parties are the “gatekeepers” who must keep the dangerous antocrats out of political power. But now, we have no gatekeepers. It was the Republican National Committee who I believe could have been a gatekeeper that blocked Trump from becoming their nominee in 2016. And now that we know for sure who Trump is, it is that Committee’s responsibility to keep him (and other autocrats and not-qualified-to-be-President candidates) from using their platform to run in 2024.
The danger to our democracy comes from the realization that the Republican National Committee (RNC) isn’t going to be a gatekeeper. The members of that Committee are 168 leaders of state Republican parties. They pretty much do whatever their Chairman Ronna McDaniel says to do, and she is a Trump supporter. Some opposition to her has developed in some Southern states, but McDaniel is still in charge.
The RNC recently conducted a “Republican Presidential Preference Poll” which included, among others more moderate “the following Republican leaders as nominees for President”: Greg Abbott, Tom Cotton, Ted Cruz, Ron DeSantis, Josh Hawley, Rand Paul, Donald J. Trump, and — wait for it – drum roll, please — Donald Trump, Jr. (Seriously?) So you see where they are coming from.
Another Republican leader who is not going to be a gate keeper is Mitch McConnell. He is not one who going to step up to condemn violence, conspiracy tales, or bad Republican behavior. He’s not a leader but a follower of whatever the Republican cult leaders pronounce. For sure, is not a gatekeeper.
• Another bad sign for our democracy is that some of our most important institutions are under attack. These include the Justice Department and especially the FBI, the Courts including the Supreme Court, Education, even the election system itself; the Electoral College, especially. Also, the CDC (Re: vaccines). Some Republicans are even demeaning the military. Attacking and demeaning formerly respected institutions is what autocrats do. With the institutions of government gone or weakened, autocrats can take over.
I believe our military, at least most of it, will stand up and not support a takeover by force of our government. However, a takeover by force is not the way we are likely to lose our democracy. That isn’t the way it is usually done any more. Now dictators get elected, or nearly elected and then appointed one way or another. Democracy no longer ends with a bang—in a revolution or military coup or a January 6 insurrection—but with a whimper: the slow weakening of critical institutions, such as the judiciary and the press. Revenge replaces governing, and there is gradual erosion of long-standing political norms – just like is happening now.
• So here is what I think: Yes, our democracy is in danger. Here are the major dangers: our politics are dysfunctional; our cultural cohesion is a thing of the past; some key institutions have lost respect and legitimacy; our identity as Americans seems increasingly subordinate to ideological; and Donald Trump, who loves autocrats around the world, is running for President. These things make us vulnerable to the appeal of autocracy. It’s a way to settle things. When some opportunity presents itself again, the stage is being set for an autocrat to step in.
But hold the phone. Yes, we are in danger, even grave danger if Trump and/or one of his cult gets elected, or almost elected. But I still think America will muddle through. There isn’t much We the People out here in the countryside can do, but there are people who can step up. Like Mike Pence stepped up. Like the Capitol Police stepped up. I don’t expect Kevin McCarthy will be one of them, but some others in Congress will be. They don’t look like much now, fighting among themselves like school children, but the good ones will, I believe, step up in a crisis and save democracy.
Just Sayin’.
John R. Dixon 