Where Are the Peacemakers?

During the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, my wife and I (and our seven-year-old) did what we could to prepare for disaster. There wasn’t much – stock up on food and water, fill the car with gas, create a makeshift shelter in the basement. We were mightily scared, but the scariest times in the Crisis lasted only about two weeks.

            I sent a telegram to President Kennedy saying something like ‘Please find a way out; don’t let the world blow up.’ Fortunately, the U.S. and Soviet leaders at the time — Kennedy and Khrushchev — did find a way out.

            Now is an equally scary and dangerous time. Nuclear threats are being made by Russia. In her recent column in the Wall Street Journal, Peggy Noonan (former speech writer for Ronald Reagan) credited Kennedy with saying. “Above all, while we are defending our own vital interests, nuclear powers must avert those confrontations which bring an adversary to a choice of either a humiliating retreat or a nuclear war.”

Note that what JFK said not to do is exactly what we are doing!  We are pushing for a Ukrainian ‘victory’, expecting Putin to accept a humiliating defeat without resorting to his nuclear capabilities. He is being inhumanly brutal, and we on high ground supporting Ukraine, but Putin is not going to accept defeat. Maybe the Russian people will overthrow him, or somehow make him quit, but it’s douhtful. He may or may not use nuclear weapons. He may do something else. But, face it, he is not going to accept defeat.

The Cuban Missile Crisis and its resulting resolution provide important lessons that are relevant to our Ukrainian predicament. The following, therefore, is a brief history of what happened in 1962.

The Cuban Missile Crisis was a confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union that was surely a consequence of the Bay of Pigs fiasco the year before. The Bay of Pigs was a failed invasion of Cuba by Cuban exiles who opposed Fidel Castro; it was covertly financed and directed by the U.S. under President John F. Kennedy.

The small invading force was defeated within days by Castro’s forces and most of the invading ‘troops’ were put into Cuban prisons. The invasion was an embarrassing failure for the U.S., and strengthened Castro’s position as a national hero. It also pushed Cuba closer to the Soviet Union, setting the stage for the Cuban Missile Crisis the following year.

In response to the failed Bay of Pigs invasion, and to America putting missiles in Turkey, Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev agreed to Cuba’s request to place nuclear missiles in Cuba to deter a future invasion.

After American spy planes spotted the construction of missile sites, President John F. Kennedy convened a meeting of the nine members of the National Security Council (NSA) and five other key advisers, in a group that became known as the Executive Committee of the NSA (EXCOMM). President Kennedy was originally advised to carry out an air strike on Cuba followed by an invasion of the Cuban mainland. Kennedy, however, chose a less aggressive course. He ordered a naval “quarantine” to prevent further missiles from reaching Cuba. By using the term “quarantine”, instead of “blockade” (legally an act of war), the United States was able to avoid the appearance of a state of war. But the US also announced it would not permit ‘offensive’ weapons in Cuba and demanded that the weapons already in Cuba be returned to the Soviet Union.

After tense negotiations, an agreement was reached between Kennedy and Khrushchev: the Soviets would dismantle their offensive weapons in Cuba and return them to the Soviet Union, in exchange for a US agreement to not invade Cuba again. Also, but secretly, the United States also agreed that it would dismantle all of the missiles which had been sent to Turkey for use against the Soviet Union.

When all missiles had been withdrawn from Cuba, the blockade was ended. The negotiations between the United States and the Soviet Union revealed the necessity for a quick, clear direct communication line between the two superpowers. As a result, the Moscow-Washington hotline was established. A series of agreements later reduced US–Soviet tensions for several years, until both countries eventually resumed adding to their nuclear arsenals.

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What could we learn from the favorable resolution of this crisis?

1. The temperament, character, and especially the intelligence of the of the adversarial leaders in a nuclear confrontation is critical to avoiding war. That is, defusing a nuclear confrontation is not work for dummies or madmen.
2. Creativity is required. Conventional wisdom said to bomb Cuba and invade. Instead, Kennedy did a naval blockade. Calling it a “quarantine” was also a creative move.
3. Patience is required. Don’t just knee-jerk bomb them, think about it a while. Maybe there’s a better idea.
4. Find ways you can give something in a negotiation without actually giving very much. For example, Kennedy gave in on the missiles in Turkey. They weren’t very important, and were soon to be taken out anyway.
5. Be willing to give a lot in return for a total solution. Khrushchev did that when he pulled his missiles out. That ended the crisis.
6. Be strong, but not confrontational. Leave some room for negotiations.

So how does this experience relate to the Ukraine war? Putin is not Khrushchev, for sure. He has made statements of goals that are absolute and intractable, and he is making nuclear threats. He leaves no room for negotiation.

Zelensky makes similar statements, and also leaves no room for negotiation. And the Biden administration says we are helping Ukraine gain a ‘victory’; that is, a Russian defeat.

Neither Putin nor Zelensky has an off-ramp. Neither does the United States.

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This war must stop. If it goes on, Ukraine will be demolished, Russia will be severely damaged, and the U.S. will be broke.

Where are the Peacemakers? Where are the creative, patient negotiators? Where are the diplomats or leaders who can talk to Putin, Zelensky, and Biden, urge them to make concessions, show them how continuing is a disaster for them and everyone else? Where are the Peacemakers?

No-one is going to get all of what they say they want. Neither Russia nor Ukraine is going to get all of Ukraine. Maybe some parts can be declared ‘Neutral’ or “International’, or something. Maybe . . . what?

Where are the Peacemakers?