Back in 2005, the U. S. Senate and House passed a National Energy Policy, and it was signed by President George W. Bush. Its stated purpose was “To ensure jobs for our future with secure, affordable, and reliable energy.”
There hasn’t been an updated National Energy Policy since 2005. That old policy, though, all 550-pages of it, has been essentially useless. It’s 500 pages, nearly a thousand individual Sections of bureaucratic goobledegook. Here’s a typical one: Not later than 6 months after the date guidelines are established under paragraph (2), in a report submitted by the agency under section 548(a), each agency shall submit to the Secretary a plan describing how the agency will implement the requirements of paragraph (1), including (A) how the agency will designate personnel primarily responsible for achieving the requirements and (B) demonstration by the agency, complete with documentation, of any finding that advanced meters or advanced metering devices, as defined in paragraph (1), are not practicable.
Get the picture?
Despite my interest in energy, I had never heard of this ‘policy’. But, anyway, it isn’t what I had in mind when I wished for a ‘national energy policy’. It’s not really a policy; it’s an exhaustive compilation of narrow legal requirements that instruct the Secretary of Energy to do some things like (a) providing rebates to consumers who buy solar collectors or heat pumps, (b) conduct research on renewable energy sources, coal mining technologies, and computing and advanced mathematics. A policy should set major goals and dates, and describe how the goals are to be reached.
What I would hope for in a national Energy Policy would be goals established for the big energy issues such as our energy independence, converting electrical producing plants from fossil fuels to renewables, for fixing the electrical grids, for nuclear, and the like. The feds do know how to set goals; for example, they have a goal for electric vehicles (EVs) to make up 50% of new passenger cars and light trucks sold by 2030. The trouble with that goal, though, is that it includes subsidies for the rich people who can afford EVs, and it does little good for the rest of us, or for climate change so long as electricity is made with fossil fuels.
I would like to propose a new National Energy Policy; call it the Dixon Energy Plan for America (DEPA).
Goal 1: The first goal of DEPA is for the U.S. to be energy independent; that is, for us not to be dependent on other countries (especially, say, Russia) for our vital energy needs. In 2021, at the outset of the Ukraine War, we got 8% of our energy from Russia. Why on earth were we buying oil from Russia? We had been essentially energy independent a year earlier.
Prior to 2015, we were importing about 15 million barrels per day from various places. The fracking boom came along so that by 2019, we were actually exporting 3 million barrels per day, making money, and not beholden to anybody. We can easily be energy independent again.
Goal 2: The second DEPA goal is for the U.S. to be prepared with energy oil reserves for any emergency. The current reserve is 714 million barrels stored in underground tanks in Louisiana and Texas. That should be doubled to 1400 million barrels by 2025, the oil stored in a nuclear-and terrorist-safe manner.
Goal 3: Our refining capacity right now is 18 million barrels per day, and is slowly decreasing, while our need for refined products is about 20 million barrels per day. Capacity should be increased to meet our daily use by 2025. Seems a no-brainer.
Goal 4: Electricity production. Let’s get real about electricity. Biden seems to want to be a Progressive hero by eliminating fossil fuels. If fossil fuel use for transportation (i.e., cars and trucks) and for home and building heating is going to be eliminated for climate reasons, then the fossil fuels now used for these purposes have to be replaced by electricity – first! Yes, we’ll all eventually have electric cars, and our homes will be heated by electric heat pumps. But, duh, the electricity has to be produced by renewables, especially wind and solar, for this to make climate sense.
Biden, pressured by Progressives who seem to lack common sense, has the cart way before the horse. It is impossible to eliminate or even cut fossil fuels before the electrical electricity to replace it is available and reasonably priced. If fossil fuel is cut while it is still used by people for cars and to heat their homes, it will become very expensive, and maybe even unavailable. The time line has to be electricity-by-renewables first, then cut the fossil fuels.
Biden has set a goal for electricity production of 80% renewables (that is, solar and wind) by 2030. It’s a good goal, but we’re not going to make it. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) estimates we will get to about 33% by then. The DEPA goal for electricity by renewables is 60% by 2030, and we can make that if we try.
To get to Biden’s 80% from non-fossil fuel sources, we need nuclear power as discussed in the next section.
Goal 5: Nuclear power isn’t dead yet, and remember, it produces no greenhouse gases. In the U.S. there are still 54 operating nuclear plants with 92 reactors. Two new plants being constructed in Georgia will be set to go on line in 2023. Bill Gates is building a plant in Wyoming that uses some new kind of reactor.
The trouble is, this isn’t near enough. We now produce about 20% of our electricity with nuclear power. The DEPA goal is that the U.S. should produce 40% of its electricity from nuclear power by 2035. To accomplish this, a number of small nuclear reactors (SMRs) should be constructed. These will be vital to modernizing our electric grids to accommodate the cyclic nature of wind and solar.
Safety is an issue, but mostly in the minds of the old “no-nuke” crowd. France gets 70% of its electricity from nuclear, and has for years. No safety issues, and they have also solved the waste problem. If French engineers can do it, we should be able to.
Goal 6: Our electric grids. The US has three electric grids (East, West, and Texas) which constitute a complex network of more than 7,300 power plants and transformers connected by more than 160,000 miles of high-voltage transmission lines. The grids, which are nearly all privately owned by a number of different companies, serve 145 million customers.
Our grids are running near capacity. The Texas grid went down several years ago, and the Eastern one went down a couple of decades ago. (I am told, but can’t verify, that lots of babies were born nine months after these electrical failures.)
The DEPA goal is for the grids to be redesigned to counter the intermittent nature of solar and wind, and to be non-hackable by foreign or domestic powers. This design work should begin immediately and be completed by 2026. Then the physical modifications should begin and be completed by 2030. As I have said above, this must be done before fossil fuels can be seriously reduced.
Goal 7: Manufacture of solar panels and wind turbines. China is by far the largest manufacturer of solar collectors, making about 2/3 of the world’s total. Are we really going to cover our land with solar panels made in China? Hopefully not. So the DEPA goal is for the U.S. to produce its own solar panels, all we need.
The materials to make solar panels (silicon, glass, and aluminum) are available but there are some sticky mining issues. Certainly, it can be done. I know because I manufactured a solar panel in the 1970s called the Yankee. Sold a few before going broke . . .
The U.S. is already doing a good job of manufacturing wind turbines. GE is Numero Uno in the world, followed by Siemens (Germany) and a Danish company called Vestes.
There are other energy related goals that would be put into a serious National Energy Policy. For example, research and development needs to be done on carbon capture, fuel cells, and other topics. Goals need to be set, plans made, and money appropriated.
__________________________
We need a public discussion/debate on energy policy to produce a policy with some teeth, that deals with the important issues, and has real goals and dates. Energy is too vital a subject to be left to the politicians (i.e., lawyers) and bureaucrats. Just Sayin’.
John R. Dixon 