I did not expect to be living through a war in my ninety-second year. World War 2, Korea, the Cold War, Vietnam, Iraq, etc., were enough already. At least I won’t be drafted into the Army for this one. For us in the U.S., employing sanctions and weaponry, it doesn’t seem much like a real war — we don’t have soldiers being killed and wounded. But it is a real war with a dangerous enemy, and we on the home front need to be prepared for its possibilities.
The Threat from Putin/Russia. It is naïve to believe, or even to hope, that Vladimir Putin is going to stop his war before he achieves some kind of noteworthy victory. At first, he wanted Ukraine conquered and its government replaced. He likely still wants that, but might stop when he controls the East and South, including taking or destroying Odessa. He would then have a land bridge to a good seaport, and by then he will also have substantially bombarded to rubble a good deal of what remains of Ukraine. Declaring victory, he might stop at that point – but he might not.
If Putin stops, the war might end, but maybe not. The Ukrainians might not stop.
If it goes the other way; that is, if Ukraine can hang on, keep fighting, producing either a ‘win’, then the danger is that Putin will escalate rather than accept such an outcome – which would look like losing to him. To avoid a clear defeat, he would almost certainly escalate by using tactical nukes on the battlefield, and/or by using chemical weapons, and/or by cyber-attacks on Europe or us or both, or even by employing the big nukes in a pre-emptive first-strike attack on us trying to destroy our ability to retaliate. The probability of one or more of these events is small, but not zero. And any of these kinds of steps could draw us into a very perilous place.
And it is being made more perilous by the New York Times and others literally bragging about how we are providing Ukraine with intelligence that helps them sink Russian ships and kill Russian Generals. It is one thing to provide the intelligence; it is a completely different thing to boast about it. Keep quiet, for God’s sake – and ours. Give them the intelligence, good, but don’t put us in even greater danger than we already are. How we use our Intelligence to help
Ukraine is not news that’s fit to print. Printing it is just boasting: “See, look what we found out. Aren’t we wonderful!”
There are also prominent politicians (e.g., Nancy Pelosi) talking about how “We will stand by Ukraine until victory is achieved.” Well, goodie for you, Nancy, but keep quiet. And think a minute: Ukraine’s ‘victory’ that you talk about means Putin’s defeat. What you are saying is equivalent to “We will stand by Ukraine until Russia/Putin is defeated.” But do you really believe Putin is the kind of person who will accept defeat while he still has options? Won’t he, in desperation, prefer instead to escalate?
I don’t think we have to be terrified of Putin’s small nukes, chemicals, or cyber-attacks. We’ll survive, but these would create dangerous and possibly destructive options for us. Short of appeasement, we should work very hard to avoid having to deal with such issues.
The Best We Can Hope For. In this terrible, complicated situation, what is the best we can realistically hope for? I think it is that Ukraine survives, still a viable nation, able to rebuild with a NATO and American ‘Marshall Plan’. I don’t know if Putin and Zelenskyy will accept Ukraine’s survival as an outcome, but after more miserable months, maybe even years, of fighting, death, and destruction, they both might. Any negotiation to that end will be excruciatingly painful for everyone involved, including the U.S., but would be necessary for Ukraine’s survival.
I don’t know why dictators feel the need to expand and control everybody around them. They seem to love military power and want to use it, not satisfied with controlling only their own people. Hitler was another example. Appeasement doesn’t work with such needy autocrats. Give them something, they just want more – and will take it if they can. We know this. Putin has to be stopped or he will continue.
But stopping him is very tricky and dangerous business for us. It appears that President Biden and his team, whoever they are behind the scenes, have done extremely well so far. Putin has been slowed, no doubt hurt, and may yet be stymied by Ukraine supplied with weapons. Putin hasn’t escalated, but he still has plenty of power – and options. Ukraine’s ‘victory’ without a Putin escalation is unlikely, but there is still hope that the valiant nation may find a way to survive.
Meanwhile, what do we do, we the ordinary American citizen? We are the home front in a war. So we support our government, even if we don’t agree with every step it takes. That support is important to getting a successful outcome to this mess. Putin needs to know the U.S. home front is on board. We are doing this very well so far.
We have to take care of ourselves, as always. The home front should not be a problem, or tear itself apart. We aren’t doing so well on this score.
We can be prepared for the worst. If this war escalates, low probability but not impossible, we could be involved in new ways. Be prepared!
Just sayin’.
John R. Dixon 