President Biden has stated that the goal for the U.S. to reach ‘net zero’ greenhouse emissions is 2050. Biden’s goal includes being half way there by 2030. What ‘net zero’ means is that if there are any greenhouse emissions from oil, gas, coal, or cows anywhere in the U.S., they will be offset by greenhouse gases removed somehow from the atmosphere.
It’s an optimistic goal. There is, however, a lot that can be done. In this article, I will describe just a few of the many possible ways to reduce greenhouse gases. Whether they can result in net zero emissions in just twenty-eight years is another issue altogether.
First let’s look at where the greenhouse gases come from. Roughly 28% are from transportation (planes, trains, trucks, and autos), 27% from electricity generation, 22% from industry (e.g., making cars, freezers, computers), 12% from commercial and residential sources (e.g., heating buildings), and 10% from agriculture (fertilizer and animals). Because the emissions are so spread out over all human activity, no one silver bullet is going to work. We have to do a lot of different things:
1. Conservation and improved efficiencies. I list this first, not because it reduces the most greenhouse gases, but because it involves just about everyone and is so doable. Indeed, a lot has already been done. Conservation means the little things that we all can do to reduce the amount of fossil fuels burned. The cost of oil, gas, and electricity is high enough for many conservation efforts to be cost effective. Examples: Insulating and weather stripping, lowering the thermostat in winter and raising it in summer, using those new light bulbs, planning well in order to drive less.
Improved efficiency means the efficiency of gasoline and diesel engines, production facilities, electric motors, furnaces, machines and tools of all kinds. Improving efficiencies is an ongoing effort of engineers, and not so easy to accomplish. Smart devices and systems can help.
2. Carbon capture is the most promising technology to reduce carbon dioxide from power plant emissions, and even from the air. There are already several dozen demonstration projects in the U.S. and the world that capture up to 90% of the carbon in the smokestacks they serve. Some of these utilize the carbon captured to manufacture plastics and other products, utilization that makes carbon capture more cost effective and reduces the problem of storage. But utilization is lagging, and so storage is still the primary method of disposing of the carbon. That is a problem not unlike storing nuclear waste, though not nearly as dangerous.
Carbon dioxide can also be extracted out of the air. There are several technologies in the experimental stage, but there is still a lot of research and development to be done. Bill Gates has put in a ton of money, and the U.S. Department of Energy is investing millions.
3. Converting electrical generating plants to solar and wind, or equipping them with carbon capture technology. This is really the most important task to be done if Biden’s goal of net zero emissions is ever to be met. It’s a huge task – there are over 11,000 utility plants over one megawatt in the U.S. Can you even imagine all these being converted to solar and wind?
And please note: all the government and media focus on electric vehicles is foolish so long as the electricity the vehicles use is generated by coal, oil, or gas. There may be plans, but I know of none, to convert existing power plants to solar and wind. Until there are, we’re being hoodwinked by the hype for electric vehicles. They are even being increasingly subsidized by government grants, which is just welfare for the rich. Why? The subsidies really needed are for the ordinary folks who need to find a way to heat their homes without oil or gas.
4. We can stop eating meat and drinking milk. I’m kidding, of course. However, cows do emit 4% of the total greenhouse gases, especially methane, which is the worst. Manure and other agricultural waste generate greenhouse gases that can be used in ‘digestors’ to make electricity. There is a new digesting facility in South Deerfield, Mass. I don’t know how much greenhouse gas is reduced, but some. Digesting the manure unfortunately smells bad and does not stop the cows from doing their thing.
5. We could build more nuclear power plants, which emit zero greenhouse gases. Of course, the successful anti-nukes campaign in the U.S., followed by the Three Mile Island and Fukushima accidents won’t let this happen.
Note, though, that in France nuclear power is considered safe and has great public support. About 72% of France’s electricity is from nuclear. (7% from fossil fuels and 21% from solar and wind.) France is essentially energy independent and has the lowest electricity costs in Europe. They export electricity, too. Their greenhouse gas emissions are one of the lowest in the world.
It is instructive how France accomplished this. In the seventies, the government involved the public in a debate about a national energy policy. There were public discussions about energy, nuclear power, the environment (i.e., greenhouse gases), safety, related national security, and costs. An important goal was energy independence, and it was critical that the people trusted the government’s information on these issues. The result was a national energy policy that people supported, including an emphasis on nuclear power. And now the French do not need Russian oil or gas.
The French dispose of their nuclear waste by recycling 96% of it into new fuel. The remaining 4% is processed into ‘glass’ and stored in stainless steel containers expected to last ‘thousands of years’.
I don’t anticipate the U.S. to embracing nuclear power, and I can hardly imagine a constructive national debate here on energy policy or anything else.
6. Renewables. This means solar, wind, hydroelectric, and maybe even tidal power. Renewables are the most popular way in the U.S. to replace fossil fuels. Solar has come a long way since I was in the solar hot water heating business (circa 1978) and lost my shirt. The new photoelectric panels are lightweight and efficient. Solar still needs a government subsidy to be cost effective, and we don’t know how long the panels will last. But solar is here to stay, and will surely grow with time.
Let’s be optimistic, but not naïve. There are a lot of difficult problems to be solved regarding the materials and safe manufacture of solar panels (mining is required and chemicals are needed). And, today, way more solar panels are made in China than in the U.S. It sounds like the Biden administration has plans to change that. Good, but the investment will be high.
Wind power, too, is here to stay. If you have the right conditions (space and a good steady wind), then wind power is at least as practical as solar – and the wind blows night and day. It’s more practical for utilities who can build huge wind farms than it is for individuals, but since we are all going to have to replace our oil and gas furnaces with something electric, it might be worth a look.
7. Tidal power is still a gleam in some engineers’ eyes, but I worry about slowing the moon and causing it to move away from the earth! (Just kidding again.)
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Net zero emissions can be done, but . . . but it’s not on track now because our leaders are more than fully occupied with Covid, Ukraine, the next election, electric cars, inflation, and the new cold war. The most important climate issues for the government to be working on are 1) getting 11,000 existing electrical generating plants off fossil fuels and onto solar, wind, or nuclear; 2) getting carbon capture, utilization, and storage into practice; and 3) getting the rest of the world doing their part. The U.S. generates only about 14% of the world’s emission, so reducing greenhouse gases must be an International effort. We rejoined the Paris Climate Agreement on January 20, 2021, where, inspired by John Kerry, we will hopefully lead the way to significant International action. 2050 is only 28 years away, and God help the climate if Trump is re-elected.
Just sayin’.
John R. Dixon 